A new study reveals that fossil fuels remain the dominant source on New England’s energy grid despite renewable transition efforts.
A new study reveals that despite widespread efforts across New England to transition to green energy, the region’s power grid remains heavily reliant on fossil fuel-based generation. Titled “New England’s Energy Transition: Colliding with Reality,” the report was authored by energy policy analyst Lisa Linowes and published by the Fiscal Alliance Foundation. It concludes that New England’s dependence on fossil fuels today is essentially unchanged from levels seen in 2000.
According to the report, fossil fuels supplied 54.6% of electricity generated in New England in 2000, a figure that has risen to 55.4% in 2025. This reliance became particularly evident during a January cold snap when temperatures plummeted into the single digits. During that period, renewable sources—including offshore wind, battery storage, and solar power—provided less than 10% of the region’s electricity, forcing heavy dependence on natural gas and heating oil.
“Now that does not mean that our electricity system hasn’t changed, it has changed dramatically. Coal has virtually been eliminated. Oil has been treated now mainly as a backup in periods when we have very high demand. Two nuclear power plants have closed and wind and solar have grown substantially, but the transition did not eliminate fossil dependence,” Linowes told reporters. She noted that while recent energy policies have sought to phase out resources like natural gas, oil and coal have already been largely displaced.
“It concentrated that dependence overwhelmingly on natural gas. So, when we discuss policies intended to move New England away from natural gas, we need to understand the starting point. We’re not talking about eliminating a marginal resource. We are talking about the resource on which the region now depends most heavily,” Linowes added. The shift away from other fuels has left natural gas as the backbone of regional power generation, even as weather-dependent renewables have expanded.
Two nuclear plants have closed amid the region’s forced transition, even as weather-dependent wind and solar capacity has grown substantially. In January 2016, natural gas accounted for 63% of proposed new capacity in ISO New England’s interconnection queue. By January 2026, however, the pipeline had shifted entirely to non-fossil resources: 46% battery storage, 44% wind, and 10% solar, leaving zero room for new fossil generation.
The study also highlights regulatory changes expected to raise the operational costs of existing fossil fuel plants, particularly the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). Established in 2005 and launched in 2008, RGGI operates as the first mandatory, market-based cap-and-invest program in the United States designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The report notes that RGGI allowance prices surged from an average of $13.49 in 2023 to $35 in June of this year. Concurrently, carbon-pricing mechanisms increased average wholesale energy prices by approximately $9 per megawatt-hour in 2025, adding roughly $1.1 billion to regional energy costs.
“The reversal in ISO-NE’s interconnection queue is also an investment signal. A new combined-cycle plant must operate for decades to recover its construction cost. Few investors will finance a 30-year asset when its future operating hours and carbon costs are increasingly uncertain,” the study said. “RGGI is therefore doing more than raising the price of gas generation. It is reinforcing the broader policy signal against investment in a resource New England still relies on before a dependable replacement system has been shown to be feasible at a cost consumers can afford.”
The agreement currently encompasses all six New England states, along with Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, and Virginia. Fiscal Alliance Foundation Executive Director Paul Craney criticized the regulatory approach, stating, “These gas power plants are going to find it to become unaffordable to operate. And this is an arbitrary decision we are making in our region.”
“It’s not because of the free market. It’s not because the gas companies want to make more profit. This is because policy makers demanded this program to try to transition us off and we’re about to hit a wall pretty soon and we don’t have a plan for the future,” he said.
To address these challenges, the study recommends reopening pathways for new high-efficiency natural gas generation and supporting fuel infrastructure, while preserving reliable resources until viable replacements are available. It also urges states to reassess policies that inflate the operating costs of existing generation, review behind-the-meter solar cost allocations, and mandate comprehensive cost and reliability comparisons for competing energy portfolios. “New England’s energy transition should be guided by what actually works, not by arbitrary climate mandates and timelines,” Craney concluded. “Before policymakers make dependable energy more expensive or force it off the grid, they should be able to show ratepayers what will replace it, how reliable that replacement will be, and what the total cost will be.”