Bloomberg NEF forecasts U.S. data center electricity demand reaching 207 GW by 2033, roughly doubling baseline 118 GW 2030 estimate, primarily from AI compute growth.

BloombergNEF's chip-based model forecasts U.S. data center demand will reach 207 GW by 2033, significantly exceeding its base case projection of 118 GW by 2030. The 42-GW gap between BNEF's base and high-case 2030 estimates represents more than four times New York City's peak load, expanding to 63 GW by 2033.

The variance reflects mounting complexity in forecasting driven by three factors: rapidly expanding data center sizes, power availability constraints, and efficiency gains developers may achieve through improved building practices. Over the past year, BNEF has tracked approximately 100 GW of new project capacity entering the pipeline. "It's not only the number of data centers and new developers that are flooding the market, but it's also the size of these data centers," explained BloombergNEF Senior Associate Nathalie Limandibhratha.

The scale of individual projects has grown dramatically. A year ago, a 1-GW facility was considered large; BNEF now tracks over 70 gigawatt-scale projects in its pipeline, with some reaching 10 GW. This shift fundamentally reshapes demand expectations. U.S. data center demand reached nearly 50 GW in 2025 and is on pace to more than double over the next five years.

Regional performance has generally exceeded BNEF's forecasts. Texas saw the largest variance, with actual 2025 demand of 8.9 GW against an estimated 7.4 GW in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas footprint. The PJM Interconnection recorded the highest regional demand at approximately 16 GW by year-end 2025.

BNEF's base case sits conservatively in the middle of third-party estimates, which span roughly 100 GW for 2030 demand. S&P Global projects 2030 capacity at 180 GW. Bank of America research suggests data center operators could add approximately 125 GW of electric load over the next five years—part of a broader 230-GW new generating capacity requirement across the U.S., against regulated utilities' planned additions of only 93 GW.