Semiconductor sector performance over 12 months depends critically on capex decisions from five major technology companies investing in AI infrastructure.
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) has surged to $569, up 89% year to date and 174% over the past year, driven less by valuation re-rating than by the cash that hyperscalers are physically wiring into AI data centers. SOXX tracks the ICE Semiconductor Index, a modified equal-weight basket of roughly 30 U.S.-listed chip names with a 0.34% expense ratio. The methodology caps single-name weights near 8% to 10% at rebalance, but between rebalances the winners drift higher, a drift that is doing the heavy lifting in 2026.
The performance dispersion among SOXX holdings reveals the real story. Micron Technology is up 240% year to date, Intel is up 211%, and Advanced Micro Devices is up 141%, while NVIDIA has lagged the basket. This divergence underscores that every top SOXX holding now lives or dies on Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Oracle order books. The cleanest indicator of this dependency appears in NVIDIA's filings: in Q1 FY27, NVIDIA reported Data Center revenue of $75.25 billion, up 92% year over year, guided Q2 to $91 billion, and disclosed total supply commitments of $119 billion. Broadcom is targeting more than $100 billion in AI semiconductor revenue by 2027, and Micron says its HBM order book is committed into 2027.
The critical variables to monitor are the quarterly capex guides from the five hyperscalers, NVIDIA's supply-commitments line in its 10-Q (which has stepped up every quarter from $95 billion in Q4 to $119 billion in Q1), and any softening in Broadcom's AI revenue guide. A single quarter where two hyperscalers cut capex guidance would be the first credible signal that the cycle is rolling over, and SOXX, given its high beta to that cycle, would compress fastest. However, NVIDIA's growth profile remains accelerating, with revenue up 85% year over year and gross margin holding at 75%, yet shares trade around $211.
The structural risk inside SOXX is that NVIDIA, the largest single holding, has materially underperformed the basket while Micron, Intel and AMD have ripped. The next quarterly rebalance will mechanically trim the runners and top up NVIDIA back toward the cap, meaning that investors who bought SOXX expecting concentrated NVIDIA exposure are getting less of it than they think. Investors seeking heavier mega-cap AI exposure may prefer the VanEck Semiconductor ETF, which leans further into NVIDIA and TSMC. Watch BlackRock's monthly holdings disclosure on the SOXX fact sheet for post-rebalance weights, and monitor Commerce Department BIS export-rule updates, since any easing on China shipments would disproportionately boost NVIDIA and reverse the recent dispersion.
If hyperscaler capex guides hold or rise through the next two reporting cycles, SOXX has room to run, but the post-rebalance NVIDIA weight will decide whether holders capture it or watch from the sidelines. Track NVIDIA's supply-commitments number and the next SOXX rebalance file closely—those two data points tell you almost everything that matters.