Omdia projects AI data center chip market will reach $286 billion by 2030.
The AI data center chip market will reach $286 billion by 2030, according to Omdia's latest AI Processors for Cloud and Data Center Forecast. This projection represents a major upward revision from the organization's previous estimates, with $123 billion in GPUs and AI accelerators shipped in 2024, rising to $207 billion in 2025 and reaching $286 billion by 2030. However, Omdia highlighted in its report that the growth in the AI chip market is starting to slow after a dramatic expansion in recent years.
The pace of this growth reveals a clear inflection point in the market cycle. While shipments grew more than 250% between 2022 and 2024, year-on-year growth is expected to slow to about 67% from 2024 to 2025. Omdia anticipates AI infrastructure spending will peak as a share of total data center investment in 2026, before gradually easing through the end of the decade. This trajectory suggests that AI will dominate incremental data center investment mid-decade before gradually tapering off toward 2030.
According to Alexander Harrowell, principal analyst for advanced computing at Omdia, multiple factors are shaping this evolution. "The key drivers are the adoption of AI applications, broader access to fine-tuning, and reasoning models that produce vast amounts of unused tokens," Harrowell said. "At the same time, smaller specialized models and efficiency gains in training and inference are curbing demand for compute." These competing forces indicate a maturing market where efficiency gains are beginning to offset raw demand growth.
The competitive landscape is simultaneously undergoing significant change. While Nvidia continues to dominate the market, 2025 is seeing increased traction for GPU alternatives. These include custom ASICs like Google's TPUs, merchant ASSPs such as Huawei's Ascend, Groq, and Cerebras, and AMD's Instinct GPUs, which have been strengthened by major software investments in 2024. This diversification suggests that the market is moving beyond single-vendor dependence as efficiency and model design shift computing demand.