JPMorgan forecasts $5.5 trillion in cumulative AI capex growth through 2030, signaling an infrastructure supercycle.
JPMorgan Global Research has quantified the AI infrastructure buildout, and the scale is striking. The firm's midyear 2026 outlook projects global AI and data center capital expenditure will reach at least $5 trillion by 2030, with a potential ceiling of $7 trillion.
Hyperscalers—Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet among them—are forecast to spend $342 billion in capital expenditure in 2025, representing a 62% year-over-year increase. Cumulatively, hyperscaler spending is expected to reach between $650 billion and $697 billion through 2026.
On the physical infrastructure side, 122 gigawatts of new data center capacity is planned for development between 2026 and 2030. Data center construction has already hit a $40 billion annualized run rate as of mid-2025, up 30% year-over-year.
JPMorgan estimates roughly $150 billion in leveraged finance tied to AI and data centers over the next five years, with investment-grade bonds linked to these sectors potentially reaching $1.5 trillion in the same timeframe.
The United States commands about 85% of AI and machine learning venture capital, according to JPMorgan's analysis. South Korea, Taiwan, and China are expected to capture downstream demand given their critical roles in semiconductor supply chains.
The research frames AI as a long-term disinflationary force in the economy, suggesting it could eventually reduce costs across industries fast enough to exert downward pressure on prices.
JPMorgan also highlights a potential pivot by Bitcoin miners toward hosting AI and high-performance computing operations. Miners already operate facilities with massive power capacity, cooling infrastructure, and rack space. AI compute contracts typically offer more predictable revenue streams than Bitcoin mining, where margins fluctuate with hash rate difficulty and BTC price. The 122 GW of planned data center capacity represents an enormous appetite for electricity, and power constraints are flagged as one of the primary risks in the outlook. In regions where Bitcoin mining operations hold favorable power purchase agreements, those contracts become strategic assets worth more than their original mining economics justified.